POLLS NOT 100% ACCURATE PREDICTORS OF POTUS RACE.
Posted in Uncategorized by Baba - Jan 24, 2016
Since FDR was elected in 1936 the pollsters have been mostly accurate, but not always.
For example, the pollster Gallup predicted the following incorrect results:
1948- Dewey would defeat Truman;
1976- Ford would defeat Carter;
2004- A draw (between Bush and Kerry);
2012- Romney would defeat Obama.
Since people are influenced by polls the industry has become more sophisticated.
Poll questions can be worded in such a way that results can be manipulated to indicate a particular result.
Polls can be conducted in carefully selected locations where a desired result is more likely.
Poll results are not easy to examine and verify. Deliberate inaccuracy is easy.
20% (4 out of 20) of the Gallup predictions since 1936 have not been consistent with actual outcomes.
In a game of Russian Roulette loading a 6-shot revolver with 20% of its capacity means there will be at least one cartridge (1.2) in the gun when you spin the cylinder.
The director of survey research at Pew,said “…as coverage has shrunk and nonresponse has grown, forecasting has become more difficult, especially in sub-presidential elections. So accuracy in polling slowly shifts from science to art.”
The NY Times said, “Our old paradigm has broken down, and we haven’t figured out how to replace it. Political polling has gotten less accurate as a result, and it’s not going to be fixed in time for 2016. We’ll have to go through a period of experimentation to see what works, and how to better hit a moving target.
Those paying close attention to the 2016 election should exercise caution as they read the polls. Because of the high cost, the difficulty in locating the small number of voters who will actually turn out in primaries and the increasing reliance on non-probability Internet polls, you are likely to see a lot of conflicting numbers.”